16th October , 2026
By Shubhii Verma
Standard Chartered has postponed its prediction that the global stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion, shifting its target from 2028 to 2030 as supply growth slows despite increasing transaction activity.
Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, said stablecoin supply has remained between $300 billion and $320 billion over the past year, currently standing near $309 billion. His report characterizes the slowdown as cyclical, reflecting subdued cryptocurrency market activity rather than weakening underlying demand.
Stablecoin Transaction Volumes Surge Despite Slower Supply Growth
Transaction data paints a stronger picture. Monthly on-chain stablecoin transfer value reached a record $19 trillion in May, while average monthly volume this year has remained just below $10 trillion, compared with $4 trillion throughout 2025.
Stablecoin velocity has also doubled to approximately 30 transactions per dollar annually, up from 15 times in 2025. USDT velocity remained around seven times, while USDC velocity climbed from 45 to approximately 80 times.
Kendrick attributes the difference to their respective uses. USDT primarily serves as a dollar-denominated savings instrument in emerging markets, whereas USDC sees greater activity in payments and emerging transactions between artificial intelligence agents.
Stablecoin Competition Intensifies as New Payment Networks Emerge
Competition is expected to intensify in developed-market payments. Kendrick identified Open USD, M^0 and A+ as potential challengers. These initiatives target trading venues, stablecoin infrastructure and shared issuance networks allowing banks to retain reserve income.
According to Kendrick, yield-sharing arrangements could determine which providers attract customers and establish lasting competitive advantages.
Stablecoin Regulation and Market Forecasts Shape the 2030 Outlook
Regulation remains the principal risk to Standard Chartered’s forecast. The bank’s outlook depends partly on whether jurisdictions adopt frameworks comparable to the United States’ GENIUS Act, scheduled to take effect in January 2027.
Kendrick’s broader investment thesis connects stablecoins with tokenized assets. He has identified Uniswap, Aave, Arbitrum and Chainlink as projects worth monitoring as blockchain infrastructure expands beyond cryptocurrency trading.
Other forecasts are more optimistic. Bernstein has projected a $4 trillion stablecoin market by 2035, while Citi’s base case anticipates approximately $1.9 trillion by 2030, with a bullish scenario reaching $4 trillion.
Blockwind News ANALYSIS
Standard Chartered’s revised timeline highlights a critical distinction between stablecoin adoption and market capitalization. Transfer activity can accelerate without a corresponding increase in circulating supply, particularly when existing tokens are reused more frequently for payments and settlements.
This suggests that supply alone may underestimate stablecoins’ growing economic role. However, transaction volumes can include repeated transfers and do not necessarily represent equivalent growth in unique users or commercial demand.
The next competitive battle will depend on regulation, distribution, interoperability and reserve-income sharing. Stablecoins could become essential financial infrastructure, but reaching $2 trillion by 2030 will require sustained adoption beyond crypto trading and favorable regulatory implementation globally.
