May 27, 2026
By Shubhii Verma
Bitcoin is showing signs of entering a higher-risk phase as institutional selling pressure continues to build, according to blockchain analytics platform Swissblock. The firm warned that persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are creating increased downward pressure on the market, raising concerns about Bitcoin’s short-term momentum.
Bitcoin Risk Index Signals Growing Selling Pressure
In a market update published on May 26, Swissblock revealed that its proprietary Bitcoin risk index has climbed to 33 out of 100. The index is designed to measure overall market risk by comparing buying demand with selling pressure using on-chain data. Historically, rising readings on the index have indicated that selling activity is beginning to outweigh accumulation, often signaling weaker market conditions ahead.
According to Swissblock, Bitcoin experienced strong accumulation during March and April, with investors steadily buying into the market. However, that trend appears to have shifted in May as the market moved back into a “distribution phase,” meaning larger holders and institutions may now be reducing exposure rather than increasing positions.
A key factor behind this change has been the recent performance of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported that these ETFs have seen net outflows on most trading days since May 7. The continued withdrawals suggest that institutional investors are becoming more cautious, leading to sustained selling pressure across the broader crypto market.
Jeff Ko, senior analyst at CoinEx, said spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $2 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks alone. He added that institutional risk appetite remains relatively weak, especially amid rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Geopolitical Tensions Add Fresh Volatility to Crypto Markets
Global tensions are also influencing market sentiment. Recent developments involving the United States and Iran have added another layer of volatility to financial markets. U.S. Central Command confirmed that American forces conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian missile facilities and a vessel allegedly used for laying naval mines. The escalation increased investor caution across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Following the news, Bitcoin briefly dropped from around $77,000 to below $76,500 on Coinbase before stabilizing. Despite the decline, markets are still watching for possible diplomatic developments and ceasefire discussions between the U.S. and Iran, which could help reduce volatility in the near term.
What Could Determine Bitcoin’s Next Major Move?
For now, analysts believe Bitcoin’s direction will largely depend on whether institutional inflows return and whether broader geopolitical tensions ease in the coming weeks.
